Sunday, November 23, 2008

Tainted Lunch Meat : wondering

This is likely not an informative post. However, after reading through many of the posts on here regarding monetary policy and so forth, I'm left wondering. Inflation is defined in a few different ways. Some say it's when prices rise, others say it's when the money supply increases, and still others say it's when currency becomes devalued. I don't know if there is a singular correct definition of inflation, but the devaluation view seems best to me. Also, I'm not entirely sure who or what causes inflation. I believe I read on here that the Fed has some direct control over that. Other factors are surely at play too, sometimes prices do, in fact, naturally rise, and purchasing power is dynamic. Now here is where I get stuck and can't make sense of things. Two thirds of our economy is based on consumer spending. We have to have a reasonable amount of purchasing power if we expect to continue a consumer economy. If my money continually buys less and less stuff, I will eventually quit buying stuff, it's just no longer a good value, I'm better off saving my money. If everyone follows that path, 2/3rds of our economy goes to shit. Since the mid 1980s personal savings has been in serious decline. I think this lines up well with our economy shifting to being consumer based. The question is, how does the Fed introducing inflation, our economic need for consumer spending and our refusal to save money all work together in a sustainable way. It seems to me that it can't work. Personal savings is now around or below zero. The only way to continue spending is by going into debt. With purchasing power likely to dive again with the introduction of a couple of trillion dollars by the Fed in the months or years to come via bailouts and such, seems like a downward spiral that we are trapped in. So exactly where does one get out of such a trap, and would a non-fiat asset or reserve backed currency alleviate this problem. I realise I may have some of this wrong in my head, but many of these parts seem to form a whole, and I can't quite get my head around it regarding some future solution. More on this to come if I can generate coherent thoughts based on the disparate details.

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